Consigliere and Color Analyst Mr. Completely and I came up with an NFL prop bet, and I’ll back any action anyone will lay down.
(A prop bet is a bet about something other than the score and spread: the coin toss is a prop bet. Will the first play from scrimmage be a pass or a run: prop bet. Will a player get carted off the field? And so on.)
Here’s the bet: Cincinnati Bengals go undefeated, 16-0, and get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs like they do every year.
Here’s why the bet’s interesting: the illegal betting websites (the reputable illegal ones, anyway) have Cincy going undefeated at 175-1. I am placing an undefeated season and a (huge and terrible and violent) loss in the first round at 130-1. I don’t care that it violates the rules of probability: this is now what I believe the future holds.
I will also take bets at 100-1 on the Bengals going 16-0, losing in the first round, and a player getting killed during the game.* That is how little I believe in the Bengals.
*Death does not have to be game-related. If someone in the crowd shoots a wide receiver, that counts.